It might seem like receivers are becoming a bigger part of Fantasy Football, but it’s not really happening.
Example: In 2012 there were 407 times where a wideout posted 10 or more Fantasy points in a standard league. That number dipped to 386 in 2013 — and sure, that is a big number when you think about it, but also think about every team having (at least) four receivers and playing 16 games. Scores of opportunities for receivers to put up points and it’s not happening often enough.
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Maybe that’s unfair to say. It’s happening enough — just not in a consistent manner. Consistency is an issue at every position and it’s what makes the studs so great. Of the 386 times a receiver had 10-plus Fantasy points, they repeated the feat in their very next game just 112 times, a 29 percent rate. That’s ugly, but it comes with a silver lining: 54 of the 112 back-to-back 10-point performances were done by Top 12 receivers and 79 of the 112 two-fers — a cool 70.5 percent — were done by Top 24 receivers. Those percentages are on par with what players had, be it in the Top 12, Top 24 or overall in 2012.
Studs being studs. It just might be the evidence you need to take two receivers with your first four picks … if not first three picks … if not first two picks.
In Fantasy there’s always the allure of the boom-or-bust player, a guy who can dominate a game and score 20-plus points or collapse with a two-catch, 24-yard game. Some believe a Fantasy team full of boom-or-busters can help propel them to victory week after week just on the strength of three of four players coming through. Others gravitate toward consistent receivers who can deliver a nice amount of Fantasy points from week to week.
However you want to slice it, we’re taking a look back at the wideouts who were consistent and those who might have earned the stigma of boom-or-bust types.
Consistent: Larry Fitzgerald
|Fantasy point average: 9.1 over 16 games / 10+ points: 9 of 16 games (56.3 pct.)|
Fitzgerald didn’t quite match expectations in 2013 given where he was drafted (30th overall on average) but still was among the Top 10 receivers in terms of consistency (yes, really). That’s pretty much the only positive Fitzgerald has — even with nine games over 10-plus Fantasy points, he averaged less than 10 points over the season and really bombed out in the seven games he didn’t get double digits in, gaining no more than six points in them. It’s been a tough two years for Fitzgerald — he didn’t even have 100 points total in 2012 because of the Cardinals quarterback woes and got only a mild bump this year because of Carson Palmer, who played behind a mediocre offensive line all season. He has just 20 plays of 20-plus yards in his last two seasons and doesn’t have 1,000 yards in each of his last two years. Time might be running out on him to return to elite form in Fantasy.
Consistent: Wes Welker
|Fantasy point average: 13.0 over 13 games / 10+ points: 7 of 13 games (53.8 pct.)|
It was very much a tale of two halves for Welker in 2013 as he averaged 12.9 Fantasy points per game in his first eight, 5.4 in five games in his last five with three missed games. A pair of concussions really did in his season — the first one in Week 11, the second in Week 14. And after scoring eight touchdowns in his first six games, Welker had two in his last 10. The combination of two concussions and his declining role following the Broncos bye week suggests he won’t be as big a hero to Fantasy owners again in 2014. That’s a tough pill to swallow since Welker has finished as a Top 24 receiver in each of the last six years.
Consistent: Julio Jones
|Fantasy point average: 13.0 over 5 games / 10+ points: 4 of 5 games (80.0 pct.)|
Josh Gordon might have been the receiver Fantasy owners fell in love with in 2013 but one guy, and only one guy, was more consistent in the games he played. That would be Jones, who had at least nine Fantasy points in every game and 10-plus in four of five. Would Jones have kept it up if he played all 16 games? Probably not, but one could reason he would pick up double digits in the 71 percent of games Gordon had, particularly with his red-hot start. Jones is on track to rejoin the Falcons long before the start of training camp and should be considered a cinch Top 30 pick.
Consistent: Randall Cobb
|Fantasy point average: 11.8 over 6 games / 10+ points: 4 of 6 games (66.7 pct.)|
Like Jones, an injury cut down Cobb’s chances to be a dominant Fantasy contributor in 2013. But also like Jones, he was very helpful when he was healthy. Cobb ranked in the Top 5 in consistency with 10-plus points in four of the six games he played in. He had 49 targets on the year, including the postseason. It actually branches out to an average of 1.9 targets per quarter played (he played nearly one half in the game he got hurt in Week 6 vs. Baltimore). That’s up there with the elite target receivers in football. Now is not a bad time to remind you he led the Packers in targets last year with 112, catching 76.8 percent of them (he caught 67.4 pct. in 2013). Cobb should be on your wish lists next year and might even come at a bargain price in drafts and auctions.
Inconsistent: Eric Decker
|Fantasy point average: 11.7 over 16 games / 10+ points: 6 of 16 games (37.5 pct.)|
Decker posted career highs in catches (87) and yards (1,288) while landing double-digit touchdowns for the second year in a row. Not bad for a guy headed for a pay day. But you’d think a guy who averaged 11.7 Fantasy points per game would be more reliable in standard leagues. But he had just six games with double-digit Fantasy points in 2013, down from eight in 2012. Games like the ones he had in Weeks 7 and 13 when he combined for five touchdowns and 324 yards along like the ones he had in Weeks 1 and 12 (three grabs for 37 yards total) basically cemented him as a boom-or-bust type rather than a steady choice. Decker’s an easy pick to make as a second receiver, even with the inconsistency, if he stays in Denver. But if he moves on and doesn’t have the brainac quarterback and multiple teammates to draw coverage away from him, I don’t see Decker as even a Top 20 option.
Inconsistent: T.Y. Hilton
|Fantasy point average: 8.3 over 16 games / 10+ points: 5 of 16 games (31.3 pct.)|
Man, we really missed the boat on this guy. A preseason favorite for just about everyone, Hilton had just five games with 10-plus Fantasy points and only one instance of back-to-back double-digit games. He especially seemed lost when the Colts lost Reggie Wayne to a torn ACL — once Wayne was out of it Hilton had just two starts with 10-plus Fantasy points. It took until the end of the year and into the postseason for Hilton to really break out as a fantastic stand-alone threat. Getting at least 100 yards in each of his last three including two playoff games, Hilton totaled 28 catches on 39 targets for 482 yards and two touchdowns. So which guy will we get in 2014: The one who struggled for much of 2013 or the one who was a post-Christmas miracle for the Colts? You’ll hear plenty about how Hilton looks great in camp and how the Colts offense will branch out this offseason, but if we really see it in practices and the preseason then Hilton’s draft status will come close to mirroring what we saw in 2013, when he was taken 79th overall on average.
Inconsistent: Torrey Smith
|Fantasy point average: 8.3 over 16 games / 10+ points: 4 of 16 games (25.0 pct.)|
Smith had his opportunity to grab the spotlight in Baltimore and even had the targets to shine, but he didn’t deliver. Finishing with a 16th-best 138 targets, Smith continued a disappointing trend in catching less than half of them — only he and Vincent Jackson were among the Top 30 receivers who caught 50 percent or fewer of their targets in 2013. That lack of production meant only four games with double digits in Fantasy points. But he still had a career-high 1,128 yards even with two games over 100 yards and five games under 60 yards. Maybe there’s some optimism here since Smith had three games with nine Fantasy points (almost 10), but even if you gave him credit for those he still had only 13 occurrences over his last 32 games. For a receiver in his second and third seasons, that’s not so good. Smith might not be the stud receiver we hoped he’d become.
Inconsistent: Marques Colston
|Fantasy point average: 7.9 over 15 games / 10+ points: 4 of 15 games (26.7 pct.)|
Before this year, Colston was considered one of the most consistent receivers in Fantasy. He had posted 1,000 yards in each of the six seasons where he played at least 12 games and had eight or more scores in five of those years. But in 2013 he took a step back statistically, posting some of his worst numbers. Catching 75 of 110 targets (68.2 pct., second-best among receivers), Colston had just five touchdowns and 943 yards. He had only 13 plays of 20-plus yards and none for 40-plus yards, the first time in his career he didn’t record at least one 40-yard catch. If you watched Colston play you could tell he was slower than in the past and really couldn’t separate from defenders much. Worst of all, he proved to be among the least consistent big-name receivers, posting 10-plus points four times and doing so in back-to-back games only once. He had six Fantasy points or less eight times. Disappointing stuff for a guy you might have targeted in past drafts.
|1||Julio Jones||5||13.0||4||80.0%||11||DeSean Jackson||16||11.4||8||50.0%|
|2||Josh Gordon||14||15.8||10||71.4%||11||Jordy Nelson||16||10.8||8||50.0%|
|3||Demaryius Thomas||16||13.8||11||68.8%||11||Justin Blackmon||4||11.5||2||50.0%|
|3||A.J. Green||16||12.7||11||68.8%||16||Andre Johnson||16||10.1||7||43.8%|
|5||Randall Cobb||6||11.8||4||66.7%||17||Keenan Allen||14||10.1||6||42.9%|
|6||Calvin Johnson||14||15.1||9||64.3%||18||Marvin Jones||15||8.5||6||40.0%|
|7||Brandon Marshall||16||12.4||9||56.3%||18||Michael Crabtree||5||6.4||2||40.0%|
|7||Dez Bryant||16||12.1||9||56.3%||20||Eric Decker||16||11.7||6||37.5%|
|7||Larry Fitzgerald||16||9.1||9||56.3%||20||Vincent Jackson||16||9.8||6||37.5%|
|10||Wes Welker||13||10.0||7||53.8%||20||Pierre Garcon||16||9.6||6||37.5%|
|11||Antonio Brown||16||11.9||8||50.0%||20||Anquan Boldin||16||9.6||6||37.5%|
|11||Alshon Jeffery||16||11.6||8||50.0%||20||Julian Edelman||16||8.6||6||37.5%|